TV9 COMMENTARY ON GOLD

Main points made:

1. The price of gold should continue to rise as there are many factors that are abetting the rise.

2. As inflation fears plague the US economy, and as the true reality of the economic recovery is known, a safe haven like gold should see higher demand.

3. Unprecedented debt issued by the US government will result in inflation now or later, and this will devalue the US dollar significantly. As gold is a dollar-denominated asset, even if supply demand numbers are stable, a weakening of the dollar will mean a rise in the price of gold.

4. The recent economic crisis have forced many export oriented countries, and countires with bulging forex reserves to divest the US-dollar holdings (at least partially) and funnel them into gold both as a hedge and as a safe haven.

5. The supply of gold will only rise constantly and steadily. But the demand for gold can suddenly shoot up in times of crisis as a safe haven.

6. General commodity cycles last about 20-25 years; this one began in early 2000 and could last another decade or more. Of course 10-12 more years of bullish sentiment in commodities will be associated with some bearish periods.

7. Temporary seasonal factors (like the festival season in India for the next 2-3 months) also mean the bullish sentiment in gold is validated.

UNION BUDGET 2009: July 6th 2009.

Commenting on the Union Budget just before D-day on 5th July, 2009.

Some points made:

1. Given the gloomy state of the global economy, the Union Budget should be presented with growth as the primary aim.

2. Although our fiscal deficit is expected to rise as rural schemes and various subsidies weigh on India Inc's balance sheet, the growth imperative must not be sacrificed just to keep the deficit numbers in check. Of course, if the fiscal deficit gets out of hand, India could face a credit downgrade, but that is not very likely in the near future.

3. IT has been a source of growth for the last decade, and this would not be the best time to eliminate tax incentives in place as the US and UK (big markets for IT) are in a recessionary environment. Uncertainty on the 10A extension must be cleared out and IT companies must be given 1-2 more years of tax exemption.

NEWS-9 COMMENTRY ON BANGALORE'S INFRASTRUCTURE WOES

On news-9 (June 4th 2009) commenting on the Bangalore's infrastructure woes and why the BBMP is unprepared even after years of experience that monsoons and rains severely affect roads, drains and activity in Bangalore.

I AM URGING ALL BANGALOREANS TO GO ONLINE AND SIGN THIS PETITION TO BE SENT TO THE BBMP. GO ONLINE, READ THE PETITION AND SIGN IT: CLICK HERE

ONLINE LINK TO THE PETITION: http://www.PetitionOnline.com/BBMP2009/petition.html

THE MORE PEOPLE THAT SIGN THE PETITION, THE MORE POWERFUL THE MESSAGE. LET IT BE DIFFERENT THIS TIME, AND LET US ALL TAKE A FEW MINUTES OUT OF OUR BUSY SCHEDULES AND FORWARD THIS PETITION LINK TO PEACE LOVING BANGALOREANS SO THAT OUR VOICE IS HERD LOUD AND CLEAR. SO PLEASE FORWARD THIS LINK TO MORE CONCERNED BANGALOREANS TO SEND A CLEAR MESSAGE TO THE BBMP. 

Dont forget to add your comments!

COMMENTRY ON NEWS-9: THE DILAPIDATING STATE OF BANGALORE'S INFRUSTRUCTURE 

I was on News-9 today (June 2nd 2009) commenting on the dilapidating state of infrastructure in Bangalore. Recently rains captured the life of 6 year old Abhishek, which was extremely tragic and absolutely unacceptable. The BBMP, or the primary organization responsible for this lapse was caught napping at the wheel. Their top officials were not even ready to appear in front of the media to apologize. Here are some points that I made. 

1. LACK OF PLANNING: Unfortunately Bangalore (and many metros in India) do not even have updated underground maps of drains and sewage systems, which is very disappointing. It's the responsibility Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike or BBMP to get on this job immediately so that search and rescue operations can go on smoothly in times of emergency. 

2. NO EXCLUSIVE SEARCH AND RESUCE TEAMS FOR EMERGENCIES: The BBMP has no team who is assigned solely to emergencies like this, which is again very sad. It's the duty of organizations like BBMP is to have top quality search and rescue teams with world class equipment, after all they are using our tax money!

3. BBMP recently took out half page and quarter page ads boasting how they had record tax collection --- WHERE'S ALL THAT MONEY GOING IF THEY CANNOT PROVIDE THE CITIZENS OF BANGALORE SOME BASIC AMENITIES!

I AM URGING ALL BANGALOREANS TO GO ONLINE AND SIGN THIS PETITION TO BE SENT TO THE BBMP. GO ONLINE, READ THE PETITION AND SIGN IT: CLICK HERE

ONLINE LINK TO THE PETITION: http://www.PetitionOnline.com/BBMP2009/petition.html

THE MORE PEOPLE THAT SIGN THE PETITION, THE MORE POWERFUL THE MESSAGE. LET IT BE DIFFERENT THIS TIME, AND LET US ALL TAKE A FEW MINUTES OUT OF YOUR BUSY SCHEDULE AND FORWARD THIS PETITION LINK TO PEACE LOVING BANGALOREANS SO THAT THEIR VOICE IS HERD LOUD AND CLEAR. SO PLEASE FORWARD THIS LINK TO MORE CONCERNED BANGALOREANS TO SEND A CLEAR MESSAGE TO THE BBMP. 

Don't forget to add your comments!

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TV 9 INTERVIEW: COMMENTING ON THE IT SECTOR SLOWDOWN IN INDIA

I was recently interviewed by TV9 news (a local news channel) and gave my opinion on the slowdown in the IT sector, and how it's interrelated with the slump in the US economy. The main points discussed are breifly given here. 

1. The main sectors affected in the US during this recession are: financial services, insurance, brokerage and banking. Companies in these sectors outsource a significant amount of activities to Indian and other IT companies. Therefore the slowdown has affected their IT spending numbers leading to depressed revenues and profits. 

2. IT budgets in many mutli-national companies like Citi, JP Morgan, etc. have been slashed leading to lower IT capital spending. This again affects Indian IT firms. In FY 2009, tech spend in the US declined by 9 percent and in FY 2010, the outlook is not very sanguine either, as tech spend might stay the same or decrease marginally. 

3. IT budgets in Indian companies too have taken a hit. They grew at a healthy pace by 13-14 percent in FY 2008, and might grow only at 4-5 percent in FY 2009. IT budgets in the coming financial year might either stay constant or just grow marginally. 

4. IT spending is usually divided into essentail and non-essential IT spending. Essential IT spend usually consists of 60-70 percent of the IT budget, which has been steady. It's the non-essential IT spend that had declined. 

5. As a result, many Indian IT firms are accepting contracts at a lesser price.Projects that were usually done at a certian price, are being accepted at 10-15 percent less. 

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