AAGANAN: Budget Analysis 2010 - Keynote Address by Adhvith Dhuddu

at Reva Institute of Technology and Management on 13th March, 2010

AAGANAN Budget Analysis 2010

The recent budget was well received in many quarters as it assuaged the concerns of deficit hawks, helped the rural masses as social sector schemes continued and satisfied urbanites as tax slabs were revamped and there was renewed focus on infrastructure development. Although no speech, presentation or document can fully capture the essence of a budget, I recently spoke to 250 MBA students from different colleges about various aspects of the budget. The presentation I shared with students is given here for viewing and downloading. Comments, suggestions and criticisms/appreciation are always welcome!!

A few notes for the students.

1. You may visit the Ministry of Finance website by clicking here.

2. If you want to read the first chapter (and other chapters) of the Economic Survey, it is accessible here.

3. The Union Budget 2010 website with many resourceful links is given here.

4. A brief document that summarizes important Budget initiatives is given here.

UPA 1.0 Vs. UPA 2.0: LEFT REALLY LEFT OUT?

By Adhvith Dhuddu

You don’t need a rocket scientist to decipher the capital markets’ vicious reaction to our FM’s highly anticipated budget. With expectations sky high, which were reflected in the May 18^th jumbo rallies, our FM under delivered on numerous aspects disappointing many stakeholders. Whether its investors, industrialists or the aam admi, but for the scattered green shoots, the broad strokes painted in the budget lacked the transformational and reformist tone that was required of Mr. Mukherjee. After the Left was left out, and the UPA launched its revamped 2.0 version; the towering expectations of a reformist UPA have been put to rest, at least temporarily.

The budget’s indifferent tone coupled with an unenthusiastic reception leaves one wondering if the Left was just a scapegoat in UPA 1.0 from ‘04 to ‘09. It’s imperative that the electorate ask this question because change has not come when the people demanded it. Voters couldn’t have sent a stronger message than by voting out the left parties who were vociferously obstructionist in nature, gleefully blocking every reform oriented policy initiative.

The primary culprit of this budget was the lack of details which the markets debunked almost immediately, sending the major indexes into deep red. So how can one accurately answer that question? Very simple, let’s explore if any major policy measure that the left would have blocked has been implemented.

FDI in banking, retail and insurance: Something that the Left parties vehemently opposed, fearing that outside competition would be detrimental to local industries. With the Left gone, there were high expectations that deregulation in these sectors would be initiated. But no concrete details were given in this segment.

PSU disinvestment: Another area that the Left strongly opposed believing the classic communist view that government is the best institution to run an industry. The prospect of moving forward here was very high as many analysts expected cash flows from PSU disinvestments to help pad the fiscal deficit. But again, besides a brief mention, little details were imparted in the FM’s speech.

Fuel Policy: Everyone’s aware of how the Left consistently voiced their irrational criticisms when fuel prices were hiked even a rupee or two. This budget was a golden opportunity for our FM to introduce sweeping policies to incentivize efficient use fuel, to encourage alternate energy companies, or to tax high polluters, all of which would’ve drawn the Left’s criticism. He could have leveraged this tremendous opportunity to provide an energy vision for India but failed to deliver from the pulpit.

Although these are just a few areas where UPA 2.0 could have initiated reforms, it clearly reflects the lack of political will to make bold moves in this opportune environment. While it’s true that the stock market is not the ideal barometer to measure the budget’s outcome, one has to pay attention to the markets as it was biggest post-budget drop in Indian history. Not only is it disappointing to realize that the Left was a scapegoat in UPA 1.0, but it’s also unfortunate to watch the Congress continue along the lines of UPA 1.0, lacking the ability to make bold moves, devoid of the required political will.

Also, few have dared to ask one tough question: What if we do stimulate, sending the fiscal deficit to 6.8 percent or higher (adding off-balance sheet items amplifies the deficit), and growth is still at moderate levels between 6-7 percent? That situation could be severely precarious for the Indian economy as the FM will then have to tackle a rising fiscal deficit, moderate growth, diminished receipts and India could fall prey to credit downgrades by international rating agencies. This outcome, which could be extremely detrimental to the economy, is very likely as the FM’s plan is a conditional one. A condition that growth will creep back into the Indian economy and the world economy will slowly pick up momentum.

I ask this question because although bold moves are required in this environment, it cannot be at the cost of fiscal prudence. Claiming that more money in the hands of the consumer will lead to higher spending is valid if you are in the United States, but the mindset of the Indian is to save more and spend only moderately. Given the gloomy environment, more individuals will be looking to pad their own bank accounts not someone else’s.

Overall this Budget is a relative disappointment because the FM has failed to capitalize on newfound popularity of the Congress party. A bird’s eye view of the budget lacked the needed lucidity in many reform areas, skipped the concerns about delivery mechanisms, has been blithe about FRBM targets, and was devoid of any visionary message or statement for the next five years of UPA 2.0

(The author is an asset manager and professional trader.)

UNION BUDGET 2009: July 6th 2009.

Commenting on the Union Budget just before D-day on 5th July, 2009.

Some points made:

1. Given the gloomy state of the global economy, the Union Budget should be presented with growth as the primary aim.

2. Although our fiscal deficit is expected to rise as rural schemes and various subsidies weigh on India Inc's balance sheet, the growth imperative must not be sacrificed just to keep the deficit numbers in check. Of course, if the fiscal deficit gets out of hand, India could face a credit downgrade, but that is not very likely in the near future.

3. IT has been a source of growth for the last decade, and this would not be the best time to eliminate tax incentives in place as the US and UK (big markets for IT) are in a recessionary environment. Uncertainty on the 10A extension must be cleared out and IT companies must be given 1-2 more years of tax exemption.

A BUDGET FOR YOUNG INDIA

By Adhvith Dhuddu

(Op-ed as appeared in Business Line Hindu)

There is much talk and anticipation surrounding the rejuvenated UPA’s interim budget expected in early July. While everyone’s discussing tax slabs, agricultural subsidies and fiscal discipline, it’s equally important that our Finance Minister focuses on presenting a budget with Young India in mind.

The demographics of our country calls for such progressive policies and young Indians have high expectations from a UPA that is partially spearheaded by Mr Rahul Gandhi and his young brigade. After all, young voters were crucial to the UPA’s thumping victory.

The 5 Es affecting young India are Education, Employment, Entrepreneurship, Environment and Energy.

Employment: Given the gloomy state of employment, tackling the labour problem first could mitigate fears of a prolonged slowdown with high unemployment. Thousands of graduates are added to an already strong Indian workforce each year, and if hiring does not gain momentum soon, it could be a source of problem for the Government.

The Finance Minister should consider providing temporary tax incentive to certain labour-intensive sectors (such as retail and manufacturing) which can have an immediate impact and alleviate some pain. But decisive and far-reaching action is needed soon or we could see many unemployed and disgruntled young graduates.

Education: The HRD Ministry has been asleep at the wheel for the last five years, adopting regressive policies when it comes to education reform. Caste and class have taken centre-stage for too long, overshadowing merit. Aimlessly increasing allocations and earmarking crores for more institutes will not ensure quality unless the ineffective command-and-control structure is comprehensively revamped.

Colleges and universities are not being allowed to make swift changes to meet 21st century requirements, and adding salt to our wounded education sector are laws that prohibit foreign universities, which are lining up to invest in India.

Mahatma Gandhi once said, “The youth of the nation is the salt of the country.” Our HRD Ministry’s inability to act is driving away thousands of talented and passionate students to other countries for graduate and postgraduate studies. If the Congress-led UPA is smart, it will enact extensive education reforms to leverage the favourable demographics of this country.

Entrepreneurship: A lot is said about the transformational reforms in 1991 that vaulted India into the global arena. But what Mr Manmohan Singh and his team did then was very simple: they provided an extremely conducive environment for entrepreneurship, which led to expansion in industries, innovation, employment, an enriched population and an active electorate.

The time is ripe for another entrepreneurial revolution, and policies favouring it. Even today corruption is rampant, capital is expensive, contracts are arduous to enforce and it’s tough setting up an enterprise. India ranks a dismal 122 out of 181 in the ease of doing business report published by the World Bank. The reforms in 1991 have shown us the right way; right policies today can foster entrepreneurship in a young population that will be the employers and employees of the future.

Energy: Energy consumption by individuals and industries is set to soar to unprecedented levels in the coming decades. Whether it is petrol, diesel, LPG or kerosene, it is critical to secure our energy future. Protecting and strengthening energy infrastructure is primary but, simultaneously, energy generating capabilities must be expanded. The Government should create a positive environment with sops for renewable energy projects and companies. Instead of choosing wind energy over solar or hydroelectric power over ethanol, we should adopt an all-of-the-above approach and promote all renewable energy companies.

The West has realised this and is rigorously trying to expand renewable sources of energy. We should create an energy infrastructure that is home-grown and self-sustaining. This issue is at the heart of every young Indian’s priorities, as energy shortages and rising prices loom ahead in the absence of long-term energy policies.

Environment: Although it may appear inconsequential at present, we will only be cursing ourselves (and our previous governments) in 2030 and 2040 if we fail to formulate and enforce concrete environmental regulations. India has experienced rapid industrialisation in the last 15 years and the pace is expected to increase in the coming decades.

The least we can do is leave the coming generations a clean and green environment. As Thomas Friedman points out in his book Hot Flat and Crowded, the 21st century will belong to leaders in Energy Technology. Energy and environment are strongly correlated and can be addressed through an all-of-the-above approach to renewable non-polluting energy.

With the right kind of policy focus, the Government can whet the youth’s appetite and simultaneously put the nation on the fast track to growth.

(The author is an asset manager and professional trader)

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